Sports betting – How to always win at betting in the long run

Sports betting – How to always win at betting in the long run

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below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them
in the future if you’re interested in learning to trade successfully in sports
then why not visit the BET angel’ Academy where we have more detailed
videos so if you’re looking at a betting market the only way that you can make
money in the longer term is by backing at odds that are above the implied
chance of that particular event occurring so if you can back a football
team and that has a 50% chance of winning but the bookmakers gonna give
you odds that represent a value above that you will make money in the longer
term the way that bookmakers make money is by offering the odds that just don’t
represent value or the true chance of something happening in order to
understand that properly you need to really understand what the odds mean so
that’s what we’re going to explore in this video what we’re actually going to
do here is we’re going to take fractional odds we’re going to convert
them to decimal odds and then convert that to implied chance so you can
actually see and understand exactly what value is or isn’t being created when you
place a bet now the problem that most people have when they place a bet is
they’re just placing a bet to win all that they do is stick a tenner on
something because they think it’s going to win there’s no concept of value in
there whatsoever but by understanding odds you will get to understand value
and therefore you will be able to place more sensible bets so let’s have a look
and see how odds are constructed so you may go into a market and you may see
odds quoted at something like 9 to 4 so we’re going to have to use a spreadsheet
here but I’m going to use a spreadsheets to show you the calculations that I’m
doing and how I’m arriving at the conclusion that I am so you can see at 9
to 4 if you put a tenner at 94 what what does that mean what does 9 for mean and
basically when you’re looking at fractional odds you’re looking at a
ratio so if you put 4 pounds down you will win 9 pan back that’s the easiest
way to understand fractional odds for pan down you get 9 pan back of course
with your tenner and that makes no sense because you’re gonna put a tenner down
how much you’re gonna get back so effectively what you’re looking at with
fractional odds is a ratio so if I actually go in here and type in a
calculation if I do 9 divided by 4 it’s a basically a ratio 2.25 times your
stake you will get returned so if you put 100 pan down you’ll get to point two
to five times back what you have originally state so that’s the way the
fractional odds work what you’re viewing when you’re looking at fractional odds
is a ratio so one hundred thirty six two four five two four seven two four and
ninety-four all of those things are ratios based upon how much the bookmaker
is willing to pay you based upon the stake that you give him now when you
look at a betting exchange they tend to not use fractional odds and now if you
move your mouse over the odds you it will very often give you a comparison of
fractional odds so you can actually do a direct comparison between fractional and
decimal but let’s have a look at how you would and convert a fractional odds to a
decimal and then into an implied chance because that’s the most important part
of what we’re going to do so if we look at odds of 94 you can see what I’ve done
here is I’ve done I’m nine divided by four equals 225 to convert it to decimal
all you need to do then is add one to it so if you’re looking at odds of nine to
four and the ratio is 225 and it means the decimal odds will be 325 so if you
go on to the exchange that you’re going to use and you see odds of 325 that is
nine to four basically but what does that actually mean is that a value bet
if we saw a football team price priced at 325 is it value or not and how do we
know that that is the case so if we go in to the spreadsheet again and I do 1/3
25 you can see that that comes out at point three oh seven seven so what is
that number that number is actually a percentage to make it easier to
understand if I click on it and then click on the percentage on the
spreadsheet then you can see that this is basically saying that 325 represents
a thirty point seven seven percent chance of this event actually going on
and occurring so for the sake of completeness what I’ll do over here is
if I just do 1/3 25 sorry one divided by the percentage
you can see we can flip it back the other way so to get this percentage I
did one divided by the odds and if you’ve got a percentage then you can
actually do 1 divided by the percentage to get the odds and convert it back in
the other direction so if we’re going to place a back bet at odds of 325 we’re
saying that we think the thing where were backing has a thirty point seven
seven percent chance of winning but let’s say that for example that we think
that it’s got a 40 percent chance of winning so I’m going to go in here and
type in 0.40 which you can see the spreadsheet is updated from is forty
percent if I now do 1 divided by 0.4 oh that cell over there can you see it
comes out it’s two and a half so what we’re saying is we think the chance of
this event occurring this this election winning is forty percent which would
mean that we’re willing to accept odds down to two point five any odds below
two point five it becomes a lay bet if the odds are above two point five then
it becomes a back about why well if we look at this we think it’s got a 40%
chance of winning we’ve done all of our stats food and all of our maths
we’ve religiously thought through the whole thing we’ve really focused on it
and looked at it in great depth and we’ve come up to the conclusion that
there’s a 40 percent chance of this happening
however the bookmaker thinks there’s only a 30% chance so if we do 40 percent
minus that 30 percent can you see that says nine point two to three that’s
saying that actually we have a nine percent edge here effectively if our
maths is correct if our theory is correct then we think it’s got a 40
percent chance were convinced that it’s got a 40 percent chance of winning and
the bookmaker has got his odds wrong so we do actually have some margin there if
we can back at 325 when we think it’s true odds should be at 2.5 we’re going
to make money there however let’s change these odds up here if we say we’re now
looking at five to four we’ll go through the same process again so if I go into
this cell and I do five divided by four and then we add one to it can you see
the odds come out it’s 225 so this is now saying that the market thinks
there’s a forty four percent chance of this particular event occurring this
person wing or this team winning whatever the market you’re looking at
and yet we’ve said there’s a 40 percent chance and it’s 225 and you can see that
number is turned negative here so we think it’s got a forty percent chance of
winning which equals to 25 we’re willing to back down to odd we will place a back
bet if we get odds at 2.5 or greater however if something is at five to four
the market is offering it to us at 2.25 it’s below our threshold there’s no
reason that we should place the back bit in this market in fact you may even want
to consider placing a lay bet in this particular market because the odds are
just no good there so the thing you’d have to say is is that 4% margin enough
am i confident enough that I think that my guess for want of a better word my
model is a better word is accurate enough that I know that I’ve got a 4%
edge in this particular market in which case you would lay but basically when
you go into a market this is what you’re saying you’re saying okay you know
Manchester United are playing this tight team if they played them 10 times they
would win four of those games and that’s where your 40% is coming from and if you
if you can come up with the reason why that is definitely going to happen given
all of the circumstances the team then use the weather fixtures they’ve got
coming up and you think they’re going to win four out of ten of the next matches
then that would be how you come up with that forty percent figure you can
convert that forty percent figure to odds and then see if those odds are
available so on this occasion it isn’t but if we go in and we modify the odds
that are being offered here we’re offering ten to four which then resolves
at a ratio of two and a half which converts to decimal odds of three point
five zero obviously if you can if you were willing to back a team that’s two
point five the markets offering you three point five then it necessarily
makes a lot of sense to back it but the most important thing by understanding
the way that these odds are created and the way that you can convert them is
this tells you that according to your model that has a 40% chance of winning
you have an 11 edge here and therefore it’s worth
placing the back bet and obviously if you want to make money in the long term
on any betting market you need an edge and you need a definable edge and one
that delivers as much margin as possible so you could assess a whole range of
bets see which one has the biggest theoretical margin and then go for that
particular bet and if you do have an edge and you have priced the market
correctly and better than the market has then over time while you may not win on
this particular event or the next one over a long long period of time if
you’ve got an edge of this sort of magnitude in the market then you
definitely will make money you

77 Replies to “Sports betting – How to always win at betting in the long run”

  1. You may not want to spell it out but could you do some hints on how to come up with your own accurate prices on football for example.

  2. The theory behind this is impeccable, the problem is that almost no-one who bets has any idea of how to go about assessing what a 'true' or 'fair' price for a horse or team should be and just goes off 'feel' or 'intuition'. If you have been betting on horses for a long time this can actually get you quite close, especially at the top of the market where there are some horrendous looking favourites that can be layed with impunity. It gets more difficult if you prefer betting at longer prices because if you can back a 10/1 shot at 16/1 thats great value…but it is still a 10/1 shot! 🙂

  3. So as a trader are we trying to take advantage of people who use this model, by spotting it in the market? or is it something which is best incorporated in a trading plan?

  4. This is a tough subject to convince people who dont already understand what you mean, to seek value. I already understand value but you lost me very early on. Good try through. What you didn't explain is how do people know what is or isn't value.

  5. Fully understand value when betting on outcomes. Tougher for me to understand when applied to for example pre race trading. Could we not potentially open a position on a horse which is not value (in our opinion) but market sentiment is seeing the odds shorten therefore we can pick up 5 ticks easily by following the market where we didn’t necessarily see betting value. Also surely betting value is very subjective and one man’s value may not be to someone else. So is it not extremely difficult to actually know if/when you have found value in betting terms other than looking at results over many years and if you are in profit then you have. Additionally in trading is reading market movements and not actually finding value in the classical sense the key?

  6. Hi, what about a small feature to limit the amount available to bet in each market?
    It has happen to me an overclick that upsetted my mind set
    Something like having a 1000$ ready on betfair main account but being only willing to trade with 100$.
    Have a good Easter. 📬

  7. "If they ran this race 10 times how many times would my horse win?"
    A question all punters should ask when backing a horse. It's not always easy in big field handicaps, but certainly a worthwhile considering if backing a horse at evens or thereabout as you can clearly say 'this horse would win 7 times out of 10, therefore evens is a cracking price to back' or 'this horse would only win 3 times out of 10, therefore evens is too short'

  8. Great explanation as always, Peter! What about the commission? Does an 11% edge mean I would win 11 for each 100 I bet? If so, do I have to take out the commission on the 11 I won?


  9. Hb. I don’t think it’s so bent to me I just got done with my hair done and then she’s done I just got done this job I just got done and got a job and she is a disgrace and I don’t think she wants it but and she doesn’t have to a good one she is not the person she wants me she’s doing so a lot more money to get money to do it and I can pay for it I want money and money for money and she is a little bit more I can get money and money

  10. Your logic is flawed imo, the only real "edge" one can have is estimating better than others what will be the most likely outcome of an event. Getting the best price is a great bonus but as others have mentioned how to find what most call "value" is the most important criteria. Value means finding a winning bet with the best odds of winning within the event, whatever it is. The video is titled "How to always win at betting in the long run", so how is loosing with the best price going to make anyone money in the long term? It won't but even having the worst odds on a winning bet is still going to make money.

  11. The right staking plan can make a huge difference. You can turn a break-even (or slight loss) method into a winning strategy with staking.

  12. so are u saying we should always place a bet at its lowest percentage ant the highest which the bookmakers have given us

  13. Could u stop making that tut sound with your mouth. Its so irritating it put me off the video. Infact it was the very first thing you did when the video started

  14. For anyone having difficulties understanding "Value", A more simplistic method may be found in my comment. There are sharp books (Very close to true odds). Examples of these books are Pinnacle, betfair, and most exchanges. Then there are soft books. Books that let the price run. If you are familiar with arbitrage, it usually includes betting at a soft book, and insuring at a sharp book. However, if you want to find value, and you aren't all that inclined to use a system you found on the internet, then compare the average of the exchanges, find the mean of the true odds offered, then use a soft book, and see if there is value. (Mean true odds are 2, but a soft book offers 3 ) Use the kelly criterion to limit variance (Google), and over the course of 300-400 bets, you should see profit. Results will vary, depending on the mental fortitude of the individual. If you are betting because you like sports, be careful.

  15. I dunno i generally lose, i do the homework but i tend to place 5/6 fold football accas. I'm definitely doing something right as i usually get 4/5 5/6 correct etc but theres always that one suprise result or red card/missed penalty that lets me down!

  16. Complete nonsense. Based on how I think the bookmakers have the wrong odds. Yeah, I am gonna clean up using this method. A con, definitely a ruse to empty your pockets.

  17. lets say the odds are man united has a odd of 2.5 and a Liverpool has odds 0.8 for the team to win
    what does this mean how do i select the right team everyone goes for the higher odds but i go for odds that most likely the lowest odds just so that i can win ive always looked at leagues and my gut feeling to this day i have not yet won i play mostly 12 legs since it would be a high payout
    if you reading this please advise me on a different way on betting

  18. Let me teach you idiots on how to really make money.

    Do two 1-100 bets a day. Over the month that gives you 60% of your stake so say you start with £1000 you wil make £600 in 1 month with bets that will pretty much never lose

  19. Finding the best value/odds is pointless if you're not even confident in the bet itself. Bookies love people who will drop money on huge underdogs just for the sake of the value. Don't get me wrong I place bets on underdogs in mma but only because I believe they will win not just because of the great return.

  20. Most people who understand gambling know all this but almost no one ever shows you how to actually ascertain if anything is value.

  21. Lol this is the biggest load of garbage I've ever watched, how can you win anything with an assumed %probability??? You don't win by assumptions you win by analytics idiot; match history true probabilities based off history, strengths of a team vs strengths of the opponent, injury reports this is how you win, by reading idiot,… reading.

  22. What you are saying is "price a market better than a bookie"! But you'll need reasons or favourable/unfavourable factors on which to base your decision that an event will happen 40% of the time as opposed to the implied 33% and you don't go into this. An example would be to look at similar events historically and take a view how that applies to the current event. Example if Liverpool had won 12/16 games versus another club when they were the home side then odds implying anything less than a 75% chance of Liverpool winning should be considered generous. Or, as is the case, there hasn't been a Derby or Oaks winner (1m4f Epsom) coming from stall 1 in the last 10 years then you would need generous odds to back the horse from stall 1. We try to highlight such factor to provide the edge you refer to.

  23. For me it’s 2 simple things
    1- quit betting on weak teams and dumbass shit and stick to good teams
    2- hope that weak trash teams stop beating better teams lol

  24. It`s quite funny to see how many people here are completely clueless. If you dont understand simple mathematics and the concept of value dont bet please

  25. I want to ask ppl a question and you sir in the video… my dad bets like this. £5 on 3-1 man city v arsenal… now if tht lands obviously he'll get back a nice amount due to the odds… but I like bet like this man city to win £50… now if they win I dont get back as much… but I do have more chance of winning my bet than my father does…. all I want to know am I right in thinking there's two types of bettors… group 1 bet like my dad and group 2 bet like me…. or is everyone like my dad… or is everyone like me??!! Im just curious to know… my dad tells me I wont win… but I say to him by the time he wins hes spent tht amount on previous failed bets! Im not expert or anything I just wish to know if there are two groups like tht… safe bettors like me and risk takers like my dad… Anyway… Im just really curious…

  26. You didn't explain why you added 1. We don't use the fractional system in Australia, but if 7/4 means "for every 4 you bet, you'll get 7 if you win" then the odds are 1.75, not 2.75. Using your method, you will always get a chance of less then 50% (unless you have odds like 4/7, but I don't think those exist?), but there is obviously sometimes a better than 50% chance of being correct.

  27. To work out what YOU think the chances are is purely subjective. On that basis – you must know your market very well indeed. It's a bit like saying Black Scholes model is perfect for working out an option's true value – you must have that piece of the jigsaw puzzle that is constantly variable – like volatility.

  28. Yes but these “interesting” bets never happen – and if they do it’s for a good reason. Bookies are very sophisticated at offering odds. This video says nothing on how to win betting in football .

  29. The thing is the market is essentially a function of the wisdom of crowds and it was always stump you in the long run….the crowd knows more than you do.

  30. one thing to bear in mind is that betfair themselves are always front running your orders. That's why when you just place an order on betfair's screens it takes many seconds for it to get filled. your orders are getting front run by betfair themselves to arbitrage your entry if possible. Between the front running, the 5% winnings tax and the premium charge betfair have the most amazing legal theft racket in history… next to income tax of course 🙂

  31. I think trying to market make like this is largely defunct nowadays. I mean even the days of market makers working for the bookies are pretty much over. The bookies tend to just correlate with the exchange prices, there they can see what punters are actually willing to back/lay at. If you use some 'sophisticated' method of coming up with the 'correct' odds and the market is completely out of kilter with your predictions, you can bet your bottom dollar it's for good reason… reasons you haven't factored in. What's more likely to be wrong, your own subjective opinion and analysis, or the markets broad view based on actual money changing hands. Markets are built on the accuracy of the crowd. As for the fundamental point of this video, aka take value, yes that is the way to win, but ascertaining that value is the difficult part, and trying to find where the broad market is wrong is largely pointless and a fools errand for the reasons outlined above.

  32. Peter, how do you know if your model is correct. I have two models that I use, one for football and one for horse racing, both give me percentage chance based on historical data. Is this good enough to use?

  33. Example:

    Kina – PSG

    Kina 20.35 odds
    PSG 1.02 odds

    You bet PSG because, Kina has no amazing players, neither have they had an amazing backround winning

  34. Tottenham – barcelona

    Tottenham 2.32 odds
    Barcelona 3.42 odds

    You never bet before the game starts, thats how you win in the long run, you need to track the speed and controll of the players during the first 8min of the game, very important, if you see good speed but lack of control, it means it's coming which means speed + control = a winner simple math n cash.

  35. You don't need to know about odds or be smart to win in the long run, i can prove this too you right now, Albert Einstein was one of our most spectacilur humans on this eart, very good at math, but this doesn't mean he could predict that we would make memes today therefor you can win in the long run with just looking during your match and place ur bet on who seems better.

  36. The only way to profit from having value is volume, your variance will reduce the more and more bets/trades you place and eventually your actual and expected will converge – that's the law!

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