Peter Webb – Betfair Trading – The Ryder Cup 2018!

Peter Webb – Betfair Trading – The Ryder Cup 2018!


every two years the golf world lights up
with the Ryder Cup it makes for an excellent trading tournament but it
trades very differently from other traditional golf tournaments so if
you’re interested in learning how to trade the Ryder Cup and watch the rest
of this video please like and comment on the video below that will allow me to
produce better quality videos and more of them in the future if you’re
interested in learning to trade successfully in sports then why not
visit the bet angel’ Academy where we have more detailed videos so it’s the
Ryder Cup and the Ryder Cup is very different from other golf tournaments in
that the most of them may work all of the majors actually that you see are
stroke play tournaments so this basically means that the players have to
over the course of four days have to get round the course in the fewest number of
strokes possible and that’s how most golf tournaments are played out most if
you’re not into golf most of the stuff they see televised would have been a
stroke play tournament as they say in golfing terms whereas where the Ryder
Cup is different is it’s a match play tournament so a match play tournament is
where on each individual game that takes place you’re battling to win a home how
do you win a whole one you basically complete so see we’ve got a par 4 or a
par 5 it’s probably a better example you’re trying to win that hole against
your opponent you’re trying to actually complete that individual hole in less
shots than your opponent if you do you get awarded at a point but if you both
end up getting the same score then the hole is halfed so in Ryder Cup golf it’s
a bit like a football match you can have team a winning team B or you can get a
tie as they would say as opposed to a draw but basically that the point would
be haft at that particular point so when you’re
playing stroke play golf you’re playing over the course of 18 holes typically on
a major over four days you’re trying to get the lowest score possible over those
four days but when you’re playing match play golf it’s all about getting the
lowest score on one individual hole if you do that you get awarded a point but
if you get the same score as your opponent you get a half and on the Ryder
Cup those points are allocated between European players and American players
so the Ryder Cup is different also in terms of in the golf world you do have
match play tournaments there are match play tournaments that take place all the
time so the players set off they go round the course and they’re looking to
win holes against each other and then basically they will continue that until
it’s impossible for one player to win or perhaps they could actually end up haft
overall and then the match will continue until we find a winner so yeah you know
the concepts very different and therefore the style of play is very
different probably the best way for me to sort of paraphrase this is it’s a
sort of a t20 for golf effectively it makes go for a bit more exciting because
you have to go for the shots so as you’re going round the course you know
you may end up in a situation where you just sort of think well you know what I
can’t win this hole so I’ll just give it to my opponent and very often what
you’ll see is on the putting green at a match play tournament you may actually
find somebody conceding a hole because somebody’s landed the ball this far
they’re already a shot behind and it’s pretty obvious they’re going to get the
putt definitely in one am at least in two so they may just give it away so you
may not see people putting out at the Ryder Cup simply because they’ve
definitely won or lost a hole and they may just concede it now so yeah it’s
very different but also think about the way that the tournament is played when
you play a major and you’re playing a stroke play tournament what’s happening
is you’re trying not to make mistakes you’re trying to get round in the we’re
making the fewest number of mistakes and hopefully picking up a shot here or
there it’s sort of like the Test match equivalent of cricket so you know you’re
defending most of the time and you’re playing defensively or as in the Ryder
Cup and in stroke play tournaments there’s a huge incentive to go for a
shot so say you know your whole round at some point and there’s not many holes
left then you’re probably going to try a few of those trickier shots or do
something a bit special in order to try and pick up a point or two and also
throw into the mix as well that what we’re doing here is we’re playing Europe
via the USA and each one of those individual matches can contribute to the
score so one of the characteristics of the Ryder Cup is that messages are
flying backwards and forwards and just saying look we’ve lost this particular
competition you need to go for it and try and get this point so that really
liven things up in terms of the activity that you see not only in
the Gulf match itself but in the underlying market that you’re likely to
trade on Betfair or any other betting exchange it’s very different from your
traditional strug play tournament so where the Ryder Cup is different as well
is that in traditional match play tournaments they’ll be player against
player going off to try and win their individual match by winning as many
houses they can against their opponent but in the Ryder Cup you actually have
different formats mixed up with in there as well so they set up to different
teams and then those teams can play you know it may be that a player doesn’t
play in the first part of the tour but plays in the singles a bit later on but
basically you’ll have different formats within the Ryder Cup as well so you get
the foursomes which is basically where two players from each team go together
in a group before hence the name but what they actually do is they hit
alternative shots so basically one player will go up and tee off and then
on the fairway the other player will play the next shot and that happens on
both teams so they alternate so basically if your colleague gets you in
trouble you’re going to have to dig yourself out of that trouble and vice
versa but basically you end up playing alternative shots throughout the rest of
that particular match now you also have the four ball as well which again as the
name suggests there are four players but basically have your own individual ball
you play that particular hole and then the person that gets the best score is
the one that goes up against the opponents so it’s a slightly more
forgiving format rather than having to hit your opponent’s ball and you don’t
know what’s going to happen you know you could have an absolute shocker but your
colleague within the same team has a blinder and it’s his score that will
count towards that particular hole so yeah those those two are very different
from what you would have seen in traditional golf and it makes it a bit
more exciting and a bit more variable as well and then typically on the last day
you have the singles which is where the players play against each other and the
captains of each team will strategically select players to go against other
players on the other side and then they just go head to head
basically to try and win their individual matches and they could win
their individual match or they could actually have it but basically what
you’ll tend to find on that last day in the singles is where the overall
tournament is won or lost but it can also throw up some unusual things as
well so you know do you throw in a really really good player against
another really good player or do you sort of mismatch it and just
strategically try and win points at certain parts of the day on certain
parts of the course so yeah you get three different formats of match play in
the Ryder Cup so how does the market trade overall what are the
characteristics the market and what should we be looking to do when you’re
actively trading the Ryder Cup overall we would expect the volume to probably I
would estimate it to be around twelve million across all those markets it’s
going to be somewhere between ten and fifteen is is my feel for the sort of
liquidity that we should see although the total matched volume as I’ve said
volume is not liquidity in previous videos so total match volume ten to
fifteen million probably around two-thirds of that you know somewhere
between half and two-thirds will go on the outright winner market so you can
bet or trade Europe the USA or the time so think of the Thai like the draw in a
football match you know if one team starts to pull away from the other then
obviously the price is going to drift but if it gets very tight and maybe
you’ll see the price of the tie the draw starts to come in a little so you know
those are the three print options and that’s quite a big trading market that
is the biggest trading market below that however you get the match odds market
which will be the four walls the foursomes or the singles where you have
you know a group a against Group B and the Thai or a whole to be haft
and those generate a lot of liquidity as well so they will generate probably four
to five million over the course of the tournament and then you look at all of
the other small markets they account for loads of little bits here and there but
predominantly it will be the Arab winner market and the individual match are
markets that account for the bulk of the liquidity that is going to be traded
during the Ryder Cup if we look at the individual sections
you know you’ve got the foursomes the four balls and the singles interestingly
enough although maybe not surprisingly they all trade similar amounts of money
at the last couple of Ryder Cups you’re looking at about a million and a half
per those individual groupings so despite the fact that there are more
players per group in the four walls and the foursomes they overall trade about
the same in total as you’d expect on the single so what that’s telling you is
that in the individual singles matches will be slightly lower liquidity than
the four balls and the foursomes but also think about the way that individual
matches play out so it’s not impossible that if you’re looking at a singles
match that one player may be dominant against another and therefore what
you’ll probably find is that when we look at the singles matches you may have
the odd match where the winner is known fairly quickly and therefore nothing
really happens within the market however if you look at the four balls that tends
to be the most varied that tends to be where the player going for a particular
shot is much more likely and therefore him getting that shot and shifting the
odds dramatically introduces the most amount of variability so you know
typically I quite like the four balls because if you look at historical data I
went through the last three Ryder Cups and we’re looking at the sort of late
80s sort of early 90s on some occasions of matches where more than two
selections traded below odds on so basically what they’re saying to you is
when a team gets into the lead it probably makes sense to lay them at low
odds in the anticipation that the other team will come back into the match at
some point that works particularly well on four balls the average price of a
team trading heavier than odds on but not going on to win was about 1.6 and
that occurred very frequently when we’re looking at the four balls if we look at
the foursomes that’s a little bit lower because the structure of the foursomes
is different and they have different incentives to score there and therefore
it becomes slightly less variable but still you’re looking at about sort of
70s mid 70s participants in that market trading at
odds on and when they do trade odds on there probably be a little bit lower
because it will be more certain so yeah the foursomes you’re looking at
mid seventies in terms of opponents trading odds on and they’re going to
reach a slightly shorter price when that occurs because it’s likely to be more
certain and at the bottom of the list we get to the singles on the last day
because we’re talking about the group effort of singles we’re not talking
about a strategic play here they’re just trying to win so as a consequence you’re
about two-thirds of those will trades odds on and still go on to lose but the
price at which that occurs will be a little bit lower so can you see there’s
a sort of gradual sliding scale in terms of the chance of players and/or match as
trading odds on and the price at which they reach because it’s going to be more
certain for example in the singles that a player will take the lead and managed
to hold on to it but look at the incentive on each of these the incentive
to score or to try and go for an amazing shot varies across individual markets
and individual groupings so when you look at the singles you know if a player
is desperately in trouble then he could lose the hole or he may just go for a
wild shot and he never know he may just bag that eagle or perhaps even an
albatross or something by playing that crazy shot if he’s got nothing to lose
and he’s about to lose the hole why not to go for it but when you look back up
and you look at for example the four balls you may find that there’s a little
bit of cooperation in terms of the way the players are likely to play given how
they’ve played their first couple of shots and so on so yeah overall what
you’re tends to find is the match odds markets produce some great trading
opportunities they’ve got reasonable amounts of liquidity and you’ll very
often see some quite variable outcomes on those individual matches so yeah
there’s an overall view of the Ryder Cup sort of volumes that it’s trades and the
sort of way that you should trade it I’ll be looking at the overall market
and trying to make a decision on what happens there but the individual markets
are very often where most of the opportunity is created and when you see
those going odds on then you’ll probably find that
it’s going to be a reasonable chance of success
if you start going against those old zong shots especially if it’s slightly
earlier in the round anyhow there’s loads of information there for you to
get on with the Ryder Cup I’m going to enjoy watching I hope you do too and
hope you get a couple of decent trades out of that tournament you

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