Betfair Trading: How to profit by analysing football matches

Betfair Trading: How to profit by analysing football matches


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released thank you for watching the video so yeah there’s loads of data that
you can keep on football matches but I do a thing called the lucky League which
as the name suggests ranks teams according to their ability or their true
ability because sometimes the number of goals you score isn’t equal to the
number of goals you should have scored so it’s important to differentiate the
two but in general is a number of ways that you can analyze football but I
thought I’d show you you know when I say somebody’s undervalued somebody’s
overvalued or that’s not the right price or this doesn’t look right or there’s
value here it’s interesting to have a little bit of a deeper dig to understand
exactly what I’m saying so this is actually the Premier League from last
year this is how it finished and if you’re doing any analysis you can
actually get a lot of information from when something has finished because
obviously have a starting value and an ending value and you can join up the two
in between to actually understand exactly how we got to that particular
point so this is actually the league that at the end of last year and it’s
there’s a lot of revealing information in here
it’s obviously Chelsea won the league last year so their points rank was one
you can see the points ranked from 1 to 20 obviously being the position they
finished in the league but also you can see a number of different things in here
so this tells you how they achieved what they did achieve and the blue stuff
means that they were ranked near the top and the dark red stuff means they were
ranked near the bottom so immediately you can see here if you look at QPR you
can see they’re ranked number two for something out of 20 so what’s that well
if it up here’s the total number of God’s so if you were betting on over two
and a half goals then QPR would be near the top of your list and so would Man
City and then you can see that Spurs were third in that way
and so on and so forth but you can see there are teams down the bottom where
the number of goals scored in the match was quite high and this obviously tells
you that they’re either scoring and conceding a lot or scoring a lot and not
conceding many but just about the number of average and so on and so forth so you
can see there that total goals does not equal position in the league simply
because you’re higher in the league doesn’t mean that you have that many
goals in a game so for example if you look at Southampton you can see it says
number 17 the number of matches that had more than I mean that ranked 17 the
total goals basically so if you were betting on a team between so says for
example Southampton and Burnley it would probably be a tight match but Man City
and QPR wouldn’t be I mean that’s pretty obvious
to be all honest but perhaps you know Leicester and QP I wouldn’t be so
obvious or there and you can see where that’s going from there um so yeah total
number of goals and ranking those can tell you give you an indication as to
what’s going on there and you can see I’ve also split it down between the
ability to attack in the ability to defend as well so what you can actually
see is this is the combined total so I actually do split out both sections so
we have a combined total and then we have the ability to do something at home
in the ability to do something Wake is very often you’ll find these are two
different things so immediately you can see here if we if we dig deeper QPR
the number of goals they conceded away was the most within the league so
suddenly you get a much clearer picture and if you look at the number of goals
when they’re playing at home they were 14th in the league and you can actually
see the number of goals scored by Man City was first asked nor Third Man
United second fourth and then you can see Liverpool’s Hampton scored an equal
number when they’re at home or that the match contained that number of goals but
you can see Chelsea do and score that many or there weren’t
many golds at home so they’re obviously very tight at home they were happy to
set up for a low score win at home and therefore you can see how that dovetails
into what’s going on within the dynamics of the team their ability to not concede
a goal their home defences of called it here it was ranked top their ability to
score goals at home actually wasn’t top that was Man City who were the best team
there but you can start to uncover characteristics by organizing all of
this by home and then by away and combining the two because the
combination is what you see in the league but that doesn’t really tell you
enough it’s when you split it up that things begin to look for any interesting
so you can begin to get some insight so for example if you look at Spurs here
you can see their defense was not very good when playing at home so let’s see
what the defense was like when they’re playing away not very good so Spurs
problem last year was conceding too many girls home and away you can see that and
if you look at Sir Hampton who had a good season last year how did they fare
at home so their ability to attack was pretty good they were ranked for their
and their ability to defend was superb so they actually ended up scoring a
reasonable number of goals and not conceding that many at home so their
home record was absolutely brilliant so you can see overall they were ranked
fifth for points at home and if we look at how they did away you can actually
see it you can see they’re ranked 20th in terms of the number of goals in a
match that they played away but that’s actually pretty good that gives you a
clue as to what they were doing when they were playing away and it also gives
you a clue as to how they messed up at the beginning of the season and how
Ronald Koeman has started to turn it around because you can see they didn’t
score that many goals away but their defense was the best in the Premier
League away from home so you can see there’s a significant difference there
but also if you look at Stoke you can see Stoke is very similar when they were
playing away last year and then go one below them and look at Palace palace
finished sort of mid division last year but the
number of goals that occurred when they played away was quite high but they
scored a lot of goals and they also tended to defend reasonably well so in
fact it was there away form they were ranked fifth overall in terms of a wave
form so you can see that in fact that was the key to their season because if
we go up and have a look at Crystal Palace at home you can see that that
wasn’t really anything particular special are lots of bits of red and
around there but yeah when you starts to break up dates like this you can begin
to really get a deeper understanding of exactly what is going on if you are
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5 Replies to “Betfair Trading: How to profit by analysing football matches”

  1. I was in the process of creating something similar to assess over 2.5 and 3.5 CS and draws. Thanks for offering this. Worth the BA subscription on its own.

  2. I didn't understand how this spreadsheet accounts for the luck of the teams. Could you please elaborate?
    It just seems you are analysing goals that happened in that season but not goals that they should have scored

  3. Why don't you elaborate more on the Sup_rnk? You don't make it clear enough what it is and why it is in the table.

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