Betfair trading – Football – Trading under 2.5 goals

Betfair trading – Football – Trading under 2.5 goals

this is my favorite sort of trade that
I’ll do in a football match why because you can get out for a profit even if you
don’t get it completely right but also it’s very easy to model before the match
starts and as the match is underway so before I trade a football match what
I do is ratings to decide how many goals are likely to be in a match and I’ll
often post these ratings in the forum or on the blog indicating matches that are
likely to be high or low scoring and I will trade off of those and what you see
here is a position put into the market at full stakes to trade under two and a
half goes on this particular match and it’s important for me when I look at a
match that I understand how that could pan out so I will use soccer mystic
which is our soccer profiling tool so you can see in here what we’re doing is
looking it over and under two-and-a-half goals I need to focus on under two and a
half goals and I’m setting up soccer mystic to be able to do that and you can
see what will happen to the odds here as the match progresses so you can see they
started lots of – OH – and gradually gets smaller and smaller and smaller and
smaller and smaller and smaller and smaller until the match goes on and
hopefully ends under two and half girls and basically you can see that’s what
the probability of this happening looks like and that’s what the odds look like
that’s what happened to the odds anything underneath that blue line is
basically a potential profit but of course you know if you can find a nil
nil that would be great but it’s inevitable that you’ll often find
matches where a goal has been scored so if we enter a goal we can see what
impact that would have on the odds so you can see here the odds come down the
odds spring out and then come back in again so in this scenario with a goal
after 30 minutes we’d been profit for most of the match and there’s a tiny
amount above the line there that you can see that would mean that we couldn’t get
a profit at that point but you can see by halftime were well into profit so
that area this area here they’re all profitable positions and there’s only a
tiny amount above that line that indicates that we would be at a loss for
that small period of time so you see if we click once and click again you can
see it’s about five minutes if there was a goal after 30 minutes where we would
potentially be at risk in that particular match so you can see here
soccer mystic allows you to model we’re deals are likely to be very
efficiently and that’s pretty beneficial because that will allow you to indicate
where you need to be in and out of the market we also have a neat little area
in sake mystic Corti over and under scenario and this just basically rather
than presents you with a graphical look it’s have a match will pan out this
actually provides you with a effectively a commentary telling you how much you’d
make if there was or wasn’t a goal at any point in the match and giving you an
idea of the potential payoff now it can never be 100% precise because there’s
many things that could happen in the match and some of them unexpected and it
can account for things like red cards and so on but you can see you can play
around with all of the different scenarios here to say well you know if
it doesn’t go my way what loss am I expecting to take up at any one
particular point and how could that play out for or against me so that’s the
benefit of having a tool like this is whether you look at it visually or in
the format that we look at here as well on the right it gives you an option to
understand what the scenarios would be so you can see now that we’ve reached
halftime we can see that Spurs have scored but you can still see that we’re
in profit everything’s played out pretty much the way we expected Spurs scored in
the 27th minute coincidentally we put in 30 minutes in our scenario indicator so
we’re looking at a gap of about five to seven minutes where we wouldn’t have
been in profit but predominantly we’ve been in profit all the way through this
match and when you get to halftime it’s time to reassess exactly your trade so
we can cash out now for a profit of 130 or so pound but whether we do or not
could be determined by how much activity there is in the match so you can see
here there’s only been one shot on target nine shots in total and using
statistics at this point can give you an indication as to where do you think you
should hold a position or whether you need to cash out and doing this will
allow you to maximize the amount of profit you’ve got because if a goal goes
in in the second half and there isn’t a goal for some period of time then you
could still be in profit anyhow so you would use stats at this
point to determine whether you wish to continue your trade or not and on this
occasion you know maybe we could continue our trade because there’s been
very shots on-target but if there were loads
and we feel we’ve been lucky to get away with this trade
he’d probably exited this particular point so yeah use stats to determine
whether to continue the trade on to the second half or not on this particular
match you can see that the odds came in and in and in and the scenario that we
saw in the first half continued in the second in terms of there wasn’t much
gold math activity so we could have held this position for a long period of time
a little bit of activity late on when it looked like there could possibly be a
goal and but even then if the goal came late on we would have been in profit
anyhow it wouldn’t have really mattered to us that much so yeah using bet angel
soccer mystic and some stats you can pull off a similar trade if you’re
interested in learning more about that angel visit bet angel comm and download
a free trial today

14 Replies to “Betfair trading – Football – Trading under 2.5 goals”

  1. Excellent video, Peter.

    I've been toying with several strategies and this one has always seemed the best. I've tried backing 0-0 then trading out after 10 minutes, but it's very risky and I got burnt for a couple of hundred doing it on an Argentine game a while back.

    With under 2.5, you have some security whereby it'll take some serious bad luck to lose the bet outright in one half of football.

    Keep up the good work mate. Great channel, and software, of course!

  2. Peter, No one has ever explained to me the Two and a Half goal rule, it doesn't currently make any sense to me, where doe's the .5 of a goal come from ?. As I see it teams score or they don't, so what is the half and where doe's it come from please ?.

  3. Peter, what site you use for stats on live games? It looks very nice in the video. Good tool! Also one question I have is: do you have the link for the forum where you post the probability of goals in games? In what thread it is posted? Thank you already very much.

  4. Peter, do you think that the available price is a good indicator of probability? Logically, it is the result of quite a lot of computer power and statistical analysis and market forces.

  5. Hi Peter, do you still post the ratings in the forum? Could you tell me where you gat the stats from. Thanks Nathan.

  6. How could you make a video called 'profit from low scoring matches during the world cup 2018' in Febuary 2015?

  7. So Peter whats the best way to find a likely low scoring game? I mean the obvious way would be to just check the prices for under 2.5 before the off and the lower the price on it the more probable the game will be low scoring… but will these games be not as profitable? I guess there's distinct balance between likelihood of it being under 2.5 and profitability.

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