Betfair Football Trading: Pre-match tips

Betfair Football Trading: Pre-match tips

OK, it’s Champions League tonight and
I’m just going to show you one of many things that you could do with bet angel
to improve what you’re doing and how you’re looking at the market when you’re
looking at a football match tonight we’ve got Chelsea and your ventus
playing so if I go in to search and do Chelsea and UV that will bring up all of
the markets and you can see there are absolutely bucket loads of them and one
of the things that you must be aware of with football stroke soccer markets is
that they’re all related so we’ve just dragged and dropped those into Guardian
and you can see Guardian populating it we’ve clicked up here to search by
volume and that will tell us where the most active markets are and then we’re
going to have a deeper look at them using a spreadsheet so you can see the
biggest markets are match holds over under turn off girl’s correct score and
then we’ve got decreasing volume from there and you can see right down the
bottom here first half corners we’ve got the ground total of eight pound matched
so that’s an exciting market but what we’re going to do here is on each match
I’m really interested in how these markets are linked together because say
for example you’re trading before the off if the price on one market moves
slightly out of kilter than the next market near to it or that’s related to
it will adjust and I’ll show you that here if we go to the excel section of
Guardian I’ve already browsed the file that I want and if I open that workbook
we can have a look at what we’ve done so before we go into the workbook I’m going
to link these markets let me just get rid of the rest of those because we
don’t need to look at those for this example and what I’m going to do is link
on the excel sheet the match odds market to the match I’ll cheat the
over-and-under to the error and under and the correct score to the correct
score and then if I click on connect here all of that data will now pour into
the spreadsheet so if we look at the spreadsheet in question what you can see
here is actually you can see was slightly off the bottom here to pull
that up this is information about the under and
over to an a half girl market and the correct score market now you could link
all of these markets together or you can link all of these markets within one
match or loads of matches you can do all sorts of weird and wonderful things and
once you’ve done that you can create weird and wonderful spreadsheets to tell
you bits of information about the market so here you can see the activity on the
over-and-under turn off goal market you can see the implied probabilities ie the
chance of the market is discounting these will happen and here you can see
the correct score information that’s held on the correct score spreadsheet as
you can see here and all we’ve done is sucked it across to our own spreadsheet
our own sheet within this workbook to interrogate what’s going on in the
market you can see to make things a bit clearer I’ve split out correct school
results that would end in under two and a half goal so you can see nil-nil
Thunder turn half goals nil one under turn half nil two and so on and so on so
forth and then I’ve added all these up at the bottom here so you can see under
two and a half goals according to the correct score markets fifty-seven 0.23%
which is over here and you can see on the main market on under two and a half
girls it’s priced at fifty-seven point one four so in fact the correct score
market is discounting a slightly higher price than the main market and you can
see the ratio here we’re saying that it’s almost in sync ninety-nine point
eight four you can see over two and a half goals is slightly out of sync and
and that’s is sort of not unusual but the most significant thing about this is
when the market goes out of sync then arbitrage errs have to step in to
correct it I’ll say have they don’t have to but they will I can assure you of
that so if you’re actively trading this market before the off it’s worth having
bet angel fired up with the spreadsheet linked in to all of this so you can keep
an eye on what’s going on beyond because if it’s about to touch that outer limit
where an arbitrage will step in that will happen people will do that
but you can also work out derivative markets as well so you can see the draw
here according to the main market is worth thirty point eight percent of
implied probability non the correct score it’s worth thirty point four and
that is because obviously it only goes up to a three or draw so what the market
is missing out is a four all draw or more effectively and you can see here
that the market is basically saying that the score line that doesn’t exist within
the market is about a point four percent chance of occurring so this you can
create derivative information off of the back of this particular market or this
particular view so there’s lots of interesting things to do there and if I
look at the match from last night if I just bring this up to give you an
example here pops up you can see I captured a moment here where it had
tipped over in one direction so the main market was above the correct score
market and it’s situations like this that tell you that one of those will
have to snap back into place and that’s what you often see if you’re actively
trying to do pre market trading and football is the market will snap and
suddenly move three or four ticks or however many it needs to correct and
aside from all of the other reasons for that this is one of the reasons that
that could occur and of course it’s unlimited
how many workbooks you wants to connect so better angel all you need to do is
populate them in Guardian so we could list even more down here if we do man
and me gala okay man United and gala tesserae
we can add those markets in here as well if we want to and then you could include
that in the same spreadsheet or on a separate spreadsheet but basically the
more information you’ve got in front of you whether you’re in play or before the
off the better you will perform and I recommend that you fiddle around with
the spreadsheets and start working on all of these sort of multiple and
interesting areas because there’s lots of hidden value and information
contained within these areas football markets and that’s because
they’re all interrelated

4 Replies to “Betfair Football Trading: Pre-match tips”

  1. How much background work had you done on your excel sheet prior to connecting the data? I get all sorts of other date transferring to my sheet? Thanks

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